SheephillGroup
Bellwether · AI infrastructure research

The AI buildout, tracked campus by campus

Bellwether provides granular insight into AI infrastructure at the project level. It filters and analyzes thousands of permits, utility filings and financing documents to help asset owners, lenders and developers understand risk at the campus, company and sector levels.

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Product tour · 129 seconds

See the product

The actual DC Tracker, as a developer, a lender and an investor would use it, and how it turns a new filing into a view on the securities exposed.

Build-plan tour · 80 seconds

From legal structure to 3D model

How the deal structure becomes a 3D build plan of Stargate Abilene, and how that isolates the specific parts of the project that still carry risk.

Who it's for

Built for people who price infrastructure risk

Every AI campus sits on a stack of permits, interconnection filings and financing documents. Bellwether reads them, so your team spends its time pricing, structuring and mitigating the risk instead of finding it.

01

Saves time

Thousands of permits, utility filings and financing documents read, sorted and linked to each campus, so analysts start from the answer instead of the search.

02

Shows exactly where the risk sits

Gate-level status for every tracked campus and project LLC (zoning, interconnection, air permits, financing), each tied to the document behind it.

03

Tracks risk week to week

Primary records re-read and reviewed weekly, with a Monday briefing on campuses that changed tier and catalysts coming up.

Infrastructure PE

The problem

Schedule slips are what erode returns, and the warning signs sit in county agendas, utility dockets and state permit files that no deal team can watch across every asset.

What Bellwether gives you

Permitting and regulatory monitoring for each campus and project LLC: a sourced financial-close checklist, energization dates from the utility and grid operator record, and the rulings and votes ahead.

The result

See a slip coming, and how far it moves energization, in time to reflect it in the returns case and the asset plan.

Infrastructure credit and project finance lenders

The problem

Underwriting a new data center loan or syndication means rebuilding the permit and power picture from scratch, and borrower materials present the sponsor’s view.

What Bellwether gives you

An independent, sourced read of every gate on the campus, the record on the sponsor’s other tracked campuses, and who else has lent into each deal.

The result

Underwrite and price delivery risk independently of the sponsor’s materials, then monitor it for the life of the loan. Project Jupiter was flagged 66 days ahead of Oracle’s force-majeure notice.

Asset managers and public credit

The problem

Capex guidance says what hyperscalers and neoclouds plan to build, not whether the power and permits exist to build it.

What Bellwether gives you

Delivered against planned GW by company, obligations against cash flow from filings, and dated catalysts mapped to traded bonds and equities.

The result

Size positions on what the record supports, and know which ruling or vote moves the name next.

01 · The physical buildout

DC Tracker

  • Execution-risk scores for 81 campuses
  • Financial-close checklists: zoning, interconnection, gas, air, water, Army Corps
  • Energization timelines from ISO and utility queues
  • Funder, lender and bondholder exposure
02 · The investment view

Credit & pricing

  • Company views: delivered vs. planned GW, obligations vs. cash flow
  • Trade screen: catalysts mapped to traded bonds and loans
  • Capacity pricing from disclosed lease and compute contracts
  • Value rotation: which layer of the AI stack the market has paid
Case study · Project Jupiter, New Mexico

Two months of public warning before a force-majeure notice.

Gas turbine plant, dusk
66days
Early warning before the notice: High risk band
32days
Early warning before the notice: Critical risk band
2.45GW
Campus capacity under force majeure

On September 24, 2026 Oracle sent a force-majeure notice on its Project Jupiter campus, and its shares fell about 3% that day. Every step leading up to it was in the public record.

The DC Tracker's execution-risk score crossed its High band 66 days, and its Critical band 32 days, before the notice. The leading signals came from dockets and courts, not financial disclosures.

Single-case, in-sample illustration.

Oct 2025Lawsuits challenge the county's $165B industrial revenue bond approval
Dec 2025State regulators rule the air-permit applications incomplete
Mar 2026The state denies the gas pipeline right-of-way; the power plan is redesigned
Jul 2026Moratorium legislation, arrests at a county meeting, environmental groups join the permit hearing
Aug 23, 2026The New Mexico Supreme Court stays the air and water permits
Sep 18, 2026The construction loan is quoted below par
Sep 24, 2026Force-majeure notice
Membership

Pricing

Retail is an introduction to AI infrastructure. Professional and Institutional are the full platform: every campus, the documents behind it and the research library. Bellwether is in private beta: approved users have full access free until launch.

Retail · 1 seat
$1,500/yr
For individual investors new to AI infrastructure

An introduction to the AI buildout: how fast it has to scale, who the major participants are, and the headline numbers behind it.

  • AI scaling: how compute and power demand grow by orders of magnitude
  • The major participants: hyperscalers, AI labs, neoclouds and chipmakers
  • Macro metrics: capacity online, pipeline and expected delivery
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Professional · 1 seat
$2,500/yr
For an analyst or PM covering AI infrastructure

Saves the hours spent reading permits, utility filings and lender documents campus by campus, with every finding linked to its source.

  • Every campus page and its source documents
  • Company credit and pricing views, catalysts and Synthesis case files
  • The full Sheephill research library
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Institutional · up to 5 seats
$10,000/yr
For credit, equity and risk teams

The team hears when a campus slips or a catalyst date approaches, and can pull the data straight into its own models and IC memos.

  • Everything in Professional, for up to 5 people
  • Weekly briefing on tier changes and upcoming catalysts
  • CSV exports of campuses, signals and exposure
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